Are Expats Really Leaving New Zealand? What the 2026 Migration Data Actually Shows

Verification date: 17 August 2026. All figures below are drawn from the most recent official releases available on this date. New Zealand migration estimates from March 2025 onward are provisional and get revised, because Statistics NZ needs up to 17 months of travel history to settle a final figure (Stats NZ, Migration Data Transformation).

Not legal or immigration advice. Visa rules described here change frequently. Confirm anything that affects your status directly with Immigration New Zealand or a licensed immigration adviser before acting.

TL;DR: The short version

If you have seen the phrase "expats are leaving New Zealand in droves," the data does not support it — at least not for foreign nationals.

In the year to June 2026, New Zealand recorded 130,700 migrant arrivals and 113,100 migrant departures, for a net gain of 17,600 people. Arrivals were up 1% and departures were down 5% on the previous year, and net migration was well above the 10,300 recorded in the June 2025 year (Stats NZ, International migration: June 2026).

Split by citizenship, the story separates cleanly. Non-New-Zealand citizens: 104,500 arrivals, 49,200 departures, a net gain of 55,300 — above the 2002–2025 June-year average net gain of 50,400. New Zealand citizens: 26,200 arrivals, 63,900 departures, a net loss of 37,700, against a long-run average net loss of 19,200 (Stats NZ, June 2026).

So the outflow is real, historically large, and overwhelmingly a New Zealand citizen phenomenon. Foreign-national departures have been shrinking: down 9% in the year to March 2026 and down 10% in the year to April 2026 (Stats NZ, March 2026; Stats NZ, April 2026).

Photo by Sulthan Auliya on Unsplash

What the numbers do and do not show

Three cautions. First, these are provisional estimates subject to revision. Second, "expat" is not a statistical category: Stats NZ reports citizenship, not birthplace or self-identity, and 35% of New Zealand citizens who migrated to Australia in the December 2025 year were born outside New Zealand (Stats NZ). Some naturalised migrants are inside the "citizen" outflow. Third, aggregate net gain says nothing about whether your sector is hiring.

Who is actually leaving, and where to

Departures in the June 2026 year, by citizenship: New Zealand 63,900; China 7,600; India 5,500; the United Kingdom 4,600; Australia 3,400; the Philippines 2,800; the United States 2,600 (Stats NZ). The scale gap between the first row and the rest is the whole story.

The leavers are young. Of the 63,900 citizen departures, 24,700 (39%) were aged 18–30 (Stats NZ). Australia dominates the destination mix: in the December 2025 year, 19,000 people arrived from Australia and 47,500 departed for it, a net loss of 28,500, of which 28,300 were New Zealand citizens (Stats NZ).

Reporting, not official data: the Australian government estimates around 670,000 New Zealand citizens now live in Australia, roughly 12.5% of New Zealand's population (CNN). Relocation firms interviewed by the New York Times cited salaries, career progression and living costs as the drivers (New York Times).

Two structural pull factors are worth naming because they apply only to citizens. Since 1 July 2023, New Zealand citizens on a non-protected Special Category Visa who have lived in Australia for four years can apply directly for Australian citizenship without first obtaining permanent residence (Australian Department of Home Affairs; govt.nz).

And Australia's labour market is tighter: unemployment there was 4.4% in June 2026 (Australian Bureau of Statistics) versus 5.6% in New Zealand (Stats NZ).

Inference, clearly labelled: if you hold a work visa rather than a New Zealand passport, neither of those two pull factors is available to you. That asymmetry is the most plausible reason foreign-national departures are falling while citizen departures stay elevated.

GettyImages, Licensed under the Unsplash+ License

The genuine pressure point: jobs and pay

This is where an expat's frustration is well founded.

Sources: Stats NZ labour market statistics, June 2026 quarter and Stats NZ consumers price index, June 2026 quarter.

Unemployment at 5.6% is the highest since the September 2015 quarter, with 171,000 people unemployed and 440,000 underutilised (Stats NZ); Reuters described it as a decade high (Reuters). Roughly 19% of the unemployed have been out of work for more than a year (NZ Herald).

Wages growing 2.0% against 4.1% inflation means real pay is falling for a typical worker. Regional and ethnic gaps are wide: North Island unemployment 6.0% versus South Island 3.7%; Pacific peoples 11.6% and Māori 10.8% versus European 4.2% (Stats NZ).

Reporting, not official comparison: the Straits Times put Australian average weekly ordinary-time earnings at A$2,051 against roughly A$1,425 in New Zealand, a gap of about 44%, and noted Australian state recruitment campaigns in healthcare, early childhood education and corrections (Straits Times).

The macro picture is not uniformly bleak. GDP rose 0.8% in the March 2026 quarter (Stats NZ). The Reserve Bank raised the Official Cash Rate 25 basis points to 2.50% on 8 July 2026 — its first hike in three years — which tends to signal a recovering rather than contracting economy, though it also raises mortgage costs (interest.co.nz).

Costs: rents have stopped biting, energy has started

If you left New Zealand in 2023 because of rent, the arithmetic has changed.

Sources: HUD Housing Market Update, March quarter 2026, Stats NZ selected price indexes, June 2026, REINZ, June 2026, Stats NZ CPI June 2026, Stats NZ, March 2026 CPI.

The NZ Herald reported the stock measure of rents rose just 0.5% between the June 2025 and June 2026 quarters, the slowest annual rate in 25 years (NZ Herald).

Trade Me put the national median weekly asking rent at $620 in June 2026, flat year-on-year, with Auckland at $660 (−1.5%) and Wellington at $595 (−0.8%) (Scoop, reporting Trade Me). Housing costs overall are no longer the acute squeeze; fuel, power and rates are, and the average household's cost of living rose 3.2% in the year to the June 2026 quarter (Stats NZ).

Note the inconsistency between the CPI's 4.1% headline and the more benign housing series. That is not an error — it reflects tradeables inflation of 4.9% driven by imported fuel, versus non-tradeables at 3.4% (Stats NZ).

Queenstown, New Zealand, Photo by Sulthan Auliya on Unsplash

What changed in the rules: the real deadline risk

For many temporary migrants, the pressure to leave is not economic. It is a visa clock.

The Accredited Employer Work Visa allows a maximum continuous stay of up to five years for skill levels 1–3, and three years for ANZSCO level 4–5 roles without a residence pathway. On reaching the maximum, holders must spend 12 months outside New Zealand before another AEWV (Immigration New Zealand). With more than 205,000 AEWV approvals since the scheme opened and over 95,000 holders as at 31 July 2026, a large cohort is working through those clocks.

Changes that make staying easier:

• Two new Skilled Migrant Category residence pathways — Trades and Technician, and Skilled Work Experience — take effect 24 August 2026, along with a single wage threshold (the one in force when you started accruing skilled work experience, rather than a higher one at residence) and a five-month grace period (Immigration New Zealand).
• AEWV holders can extend a visa to complete the work experience needed for residence (Immigration New Zealand).
• The AEWV median wage requirement was removed on 10 March 2025, with market rate applying instead, and the experience requirement cut from three years to two (Immigration New Zealand).
• A new Short-term Graduate Work Visa with six months of open work rights opens for applications on 16 November 2026 (Immigration New Zealand).
• The Parent Boost Visitor Visa, open since 29 September 2025, allows eligible sponsored parents up to five years, renewable once (Immigration New Zealand).

Changes that make staying harder:

• English language requirements extended to AEWV skill level 3 roles from 1 June 2026, though not retrospectively for current holders, with visas expiring on or before 1 December 2026 exempt on renewal (Immigration New Zealand).
• The immigration median wage rose to NZ$35.00 an hour from 9 March 2026 (INZ Amendment Circular 2026-01).
• Under the August 2026 SMC rules, self-employment cannot count as directly relevant work experience, and "genuine employment" tests are strengthened across SMC, Work to Residence and Straight to Residence (Immigration New Zealand).
• Parent Resident Visas remain capped at 2,500 per year (Immigration New Zealand).
• From late 2027, citizenship by grant will require an in-person test — 20 multiple-choice questions, 75% pass mark, with under-16s and over-65s exempt. It will not affect applications lodged before it takes effect (Department of Internal Affairs; Reuters).

Citizenship presence rules are unchanged and demanding: residence for at least the last five years, with at least 240 days in each 12-month period and 1,350 days across the five years, plus an intention to keep living in New Zealand (govt.nz). If you are counting days, a long stint abroad can reset your timeline.

The counter-case: who is still coming

Plenty of people. Largest arrival citizenships in the June 2026 year were New Zealand 26,200, China 17,800, India 16,500, the Philippines 10,800, Sri Lanka 4,700, Australia 4,500, the United States 4,300 and the United Kingdom 4,100 (Stats NZ). Net gains by citizenship rose for China (10,207, up from 7,566 a year earlier) while India remained strongly positive at 11,046 (Stats NZ).

Students are returning: 39,738 full-fee-paying international students held visas at the end of June 2026, up 9.1% on June 2025 (NEWS WIRE, reporting MBIE Migration Data Explorer). Residence is still being granted at volume — 24,351 of 26,253 applications approved between 1 July 2025 and 31 May 2026, covering 44,459 people (analysis of INZ data; INZ statistics).

Investors are moving in. The relaunched Active Investor Plus visa — Growth at NZ$5m over three years, Balanced at NZ$10m over five, no English requirement, and presence obligations as light as 21 days over three years — attracted 637 applications and around NZ$3.7 billion in potential investment in its first 12 months (Immigration New Zealand; visa criteria).

New Zealand looks strongest right now for people whose income is not set by the local labour market — investors, remote workers paid offshore, retirees on foreign pensions, and specialists in visibly hiring niches. It looks weakest for early-career generalists competing for scarce domestic roles.

A decision framework: stay or go

Before you leave: a practical checklist

• Check your visa clock. Confirm your maximum continuous stay and whether the 12-month offshore stand-down would apply (Immigration New Zealand).
• Re-test eligibility against the 24 August 2026 rules before assuming you do not qualify — the Trades and Technician and Skilled Work Experience pathways are new, and the wage threshold now locks to when you started accruing experience (Immigration New Zealand).
• Count your citizenship days. 240 per 12-month period and 1,350 across five years (govt.nz).
• Verify that self-employment income counts for your intended pathway — under the August 2026 rules it does not count as directly relevant work experience (Immigration New Zealand).
• Confirm English requirements if you hold or are renewing an AEWV in a skill level 3 role (Immigration New Zealand).
• Model the real pay gap, not the headline one. Compare a firm offer against New Zealand average ordinary-time hourly earnings of NZ$44.62 (Stats NZ), then adjust for destination rents, tax and healthcare.
• Price your exit. Lease break costs, shipping, school placements, and whether family visas such as Parent Boost would survive your move (Immigration New Zealand).
• Check the next data point before deciding. Stats NZ releases the July 2026 migration figures on 14 September 2026 (Stats NZ).
• Get advice in writing from a licensed immigration adviser on anything status-related. Nothing above is advice.

Bottom line

"Expats are leaving New Zealand" is the wrong frame for 2026. Foreign-national departures fell and the non-citizen net gain of 55,300 sits above its long-run average (Stats NZ). What is genuinely difficult is finding and holding a well-paid job in a labour market with 5.6% unemployment and real wages going backwards (Stats NZ), and managing visa clocks that decide your timeline for you. Decide on those two things — not on a headline about an exodus that, for people on foreign passports, the data does not show.